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ABSTRACT We examine massive black hole (MBH) mergers and their associated gravitational wave signals from the large-volume cosmological simulation Astrid . Astrid includes galaxy formation and black hole models recently updated with an MBH seed population between 3 × 104h−1M⊙ and 3 × 105h−1M⊙ and a sub-grid dynamical friction (DF) model to follow the MBH dynamics down to 1.5 ckpc h−1. We calculate the initial eccentricities of MBH orbits directly from the simulation at kpc-scales, and find orbital eccentricities above 0.7 for most MBH pairs before the numerical merger. After approximating unresolved evolution on scales below $${\sim 200\, \text{pc}}$$, we find that the in-simulation DF on large scales accounts for more than half of the total orbital decay time ($$\sim 500\, \text{Myr}$$) due to DF. The binary hardening time is an order of magnitude longer than the DF time, especially for the seed-mass binaries (MBH < 2Mseed). As a result, only $$\lesssim 20{{\rm per \,cent}}$$ of seed MBH pairs merge at z > 3 after considering both unresolved DF evolution and binary hardening. These z > 3 seed-mass mergers are hosted in a biased population of galaxies with the highest stellar masses of $$\gt 10^9\, {\rm M}_\odot$$. With the higher initial eccentricity prediction from Astrid , we estimate an expected merger rate of 0.3−0.7 per year from the z > 3 MBH population. This is a factor of ∼7 higher than the prediction using the circular orbit assumption. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna events are expected at a similar rate, and comprise $$\gtrsim 60\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$$ seed-seed mergers, $$\sim 30\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$$ involving only one seed-mass MBH, and $$\sim 10\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$$ mergers of non-seed MBHs. 

Abstract Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ∼10−3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67−002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ∼20-yr time baseline spans ∼4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302−102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. 

Abstract Periodically variable quasars have been suggested as close binary supermassive black holes. We present a systematic search for periodic light curves in 625 spectroscopically confirmed quasars with a median redshift of 1.8 in a 4.6 deg2 overlapping region of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova (DES-SN) fields and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 (SDSS-S82). Our sample has a unique 20-year long multi-color (griz) light curve enabled by combining DES-SN Y6 observations with archival SDSS-S82 data. The deep imaging allows us to search for periodic light curves in less luminous quasars (down to r ∼23.5 mag) powered by less massive black holes (with masses ≳ 108.5M⊙) at high redshift for the first time. We find five candidates with significant (at >99.74% single-frequency significance in at least two bands with a global p-value of ∼7 × 10−4–3× 10−3 accounting for the look-elsewhere effect) periodicity with observed periods of ∼3–5 years (i.e., 1–2 years in rest frame) having ∼4–6 cycles spanned by the observations. If all five candidates are periodically variable quasars, this translates into a detection rate of $${\sim }0.8^{+0.5}_{-0.3}$$% or $${\sim }1.1^{+0.7}_{-0.5}$$ quasar per deg2. Our detection rate is 4–80 times larger than those found by previous searches using shallower surveys over larger areas. This discrepancy is likely caused by differences in the quasar populations probed and the survey data qualities. We discuss implications on the future direct detection of low-frequency gravitational waves. Continued photometric monitoring will further assess the robustness and characteristics of these candidate periodic quasars to determine their physical origins. 

Abstract We search NANOGrav’s 12.5 yr data set for evidence of a gravitational-wave background (GWB) with all the spatial correlations allowed by general metric theories of gravity. We find no substantial evidence in favor of the existence of such correlations in our data. We find that scalar-transverse (ST) correlations yield signal-to-noise ratios and Bayes factors that are higher than quadrupolar (tensor-transverse, TT) correlations. Specifically, we find ST correlations with a signal-to-noise ratio of 2.8 that are preferred over TT correlations (Hellings and Downs correlations) with Bayesian odds of about 20:1. However, the significance of ST correlations is reduced dramatically when we include modeling of the solar system ephemeris systematics and/or remove pulsar J0030+0451 entirely from consideration. Even taking the nominal signal-to-noise ratios at face value, analyses of simulated data sets show that such values are not extremely unlikely to be observed in cases where only the usual TT modes are present in the GWB. In the absence of a detection of any polarization mode of gravity, we place upper limits on their amplitudes for a spectral index ofγ= 5 and a reference frequency off_yr= 1 yr⁻¹. Among the upper limits for eight general families of metric theories of gravity, we find the values of $A_{\mathrm{TT}}^{95\%}=(9.7\pm 0.4)\times {10}^{-16}$and $A_{\mathrm{ST}}^{95\%}=(1.4\pm 0.03)\times {10}^{-15}$for the family of metric spacetime theories that contain both TT and ST modes.